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THE HUDSON VALLEY'S NEWEST OLD NEWSPAPER | |||
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Orange County October Real Estate Review
Pine Bush School District Sells Almost 1 home per day!
It may not be the best of times here in Orange County, but is it really the worst? "No, I'm selling houses all the time," says Sue Jackowski at R.J. Smith Realty in Pine Bush.
She isn't the only voice countering the tides of gloom regarding the real estate market in the Town of Crawford right now. "This business runs in seven year cycles, and right now we're coming out of the low end of that cycle. In fact, this is a great time to buy," says Cheryle Wolfe of Cheryl Wolfe Realty. Tina Gordon, of Caldwell Banker, confirms that houses are being purchased despite the financial woes afflicting the nation. "Oh, certainly, houses are selling, but mostly in the lower price range. There are a couple of reasons for that, and one of them is that people are also thinking of the cost of heating a large home." Orange County is still attracting people from farther south because it's not overbuilt and the taxes are still reasonable. If you doubt that last statement, talk to someone who lives on Long Island or Northern New Jersey. Partly for this reason, the county had the biggest run up in prices in our area. A little bit of a bubble got going in the years before 2006. The bubble is deflating still, particularly for houses above the $500,000 range. This year Orange County has seen a drop in sale prices of somewhere around 12% from an average $326,500 to $288,500. At the same time, sales numbers have come down by around 25%. In Ulster Country, the run up before 2005 was not as strong, and the let down has been less painful too. The national real estate bubble is still deflating too. The Case-Shiller 20 city index fell by another 0.9% in July and is down 16.3% from last year. Nominal prices are down 19.5% from the peak two years ago, which implies a real decline of 27%. The bubble is now at least 60% deflated. However, a lot of that bubbly mess is in Florida and Southern California, where the worst of loans proliferated and the bubble was at its max. Here in the Hudson Valley, we were much less bubbly and have nowhere near as far down to go. Beyond the market for people moving into the area, there is the local market: people who already live in Orange County or close by and are moving one way or the other for their own reasons. Then there is the second home market, which moves to its own rhythms, often out of sync with the larger waves of the market. The lower prices of houses in our region now are producing a buy signal in that market sector. However, the turmoil in the financial world, and the job losses associated with it, are also having a dampening effect. The end result there is probably a wash, at least for now. And the things that draw people to the Town of Crawford also remain, such as the Pine Bush School District with its strong reputation, the natural beauty of the area, and the communication links to New York City and elsewhere, such as Stewart airport. So the big question for now remains what it has been for most of the year: Has the real estate market in our area bottomed out yet? That's why many homes are being held off the market, and that's why many buyers are reluctant to commit. With uncertainty on Wall Street and chaos in the financial markets, this is a difficult time for anyone to commit to something like a thirty-year fixed mortgage at 6% interest. A look at the figures appears to show that June might have been the bottom. Things improved in July. Some realtors believe that the market is turning around. Other voices are more cautious. Tom McGorry, Provident Bank Vice President for Orange County, notes that "We are still lending money. We are still in the fundamental business of providing mortgages to young couples seeking a home. We never got into any sub-prime lending; that's not our business. Most of that kind of thing here was done by mortgage brokers working around the area banks. So we're still here for the couple with enough for a down-payment — say 20% — and the income to carry the mortgage. We've always done our homework on our clients, and that hasn't changed, either." So are we at the bottom yet? Well, maybe not. "No. I don't think we're there yet," says McGorry. "The improvement in the summer is merely the historical summer buying season. People want to get into a new house before schools start. We have to wait for the October figures to get a better idea of the situation." Tom McChesney, a partner at Valuation Consultants in Newburgh, offers another perspective. "I do appraisals from year to year. I'm finding that prices in the area have fallen very little. However, what is down is the number of sales. There's a large inventory of unsold homes and days a property stays on the market has gone from 62 to 80. "What's also clear is that there is far less new construction taking place now," continues McChesney. "Of course a lot of speculative building was at the higher end of the market. That will take time to clear." Sheri Herbert at Walden Savings Bank says simply, "We are currently in an unprecedented market, with so many factors in play, we find ourselves in uncharted territory. I don't have any predictions for the future; except that real estate market is cyclical, and I believe will continue to be so. Values in most of the area have declined; however, we also have pockets and neighborhoods that have shown appreciation."
MARKET REPORT FOR THE PINE BUSH SCHOOL DISTRICT
Homes that have sold during the third quarter (7/1/08-9/30/08)
The average sales price is $271,238.
Current Listings
There have been 141 new listings since July 1, 2008. Below is a summary of the listings.
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